Supply and Demand

17 07 2008

Those of us who do not trade in essentials often complain that we are getting ripped off by those who do. It is true; not only do we have the world’s highest inflation in local money we also have the highest inflation in a convertible currency, in this case US dollars.

I have just been around to get my weekly milk supply and was about to get on my high horse about how Helen could hike her US dollar price by 50% while her Zimbabwe dollar price was not even related (astronomical to try and force people to use the green backs) only to find that the milk, which is sold on a first come first served basis, was finished. Oh well, she has hiked the prices because she can. So, in keeping with the trend I have had to increase my prices (we use a US dollar baseline) though 16% is hardly “hiking”. But I don’t have a queue of people waiting outside the gate to buy my seedlings!

I was chatting to a customer on Tuesday who turned out to be the re-insurance manager for a local bank. He was saying that he made more money out of his greenhouse tomato crop than he got paid as a salary which does not say much for his salary. Complaining about and discussing the financial situation he was firmly of the belief that we really are now in the “endgame”. He did say that the government was going to go after the bigger companies in the “Indigenization Programme” whereby indigenous Zimbabweans (i.e. not whites) must hold at least 51% of the shares and fully aware that a political deal is in the offing they are not going to hold back. My friend Dave called around this morning and mentioned that Bob has been speaking at various rallies urging people to take now as once he is gone they will not have the opportunity. Dave speaks good Shona so he is likely to be in the know. I said to my customer that I rather hoped someone would come and take my company. He laughed and said that the likes of Unilever Zimbabwe were more likely recipients of the unwanted attention!

Tuesday, July 14th was Jenni’s day. She featured on the Dog-a-Day Calendar published by Workman in the USA. I’d sent her photo in last year and was rather chuffed when it appeared. www.pageaday.com DOGS-8243259772





Tightening the belt

12 07 2008

It’s been going on for some time now but this month I finally had to face up to not being able to afford my gym subscription. Well, I suppose I could afford it but it is no longer essential and what little real money I have must go into survival. I guess other people have different ideas of what essential means but for me alcohol and dinners out fell by the wayside some time ago. The cash flow at work is now a trickle that vanishes as soon as it appears. I guess we are at about 40% capacity which is not great but we have been there before. The difference then was that the cash had at least some value so was around a fair bit longer to allow it to be used a bit more successfully.

I have spent most of this week adapting the software that I wrote to take any currency. Yes, I am being a bit optimistic but not without cause. Real money is starting to trickle in and a few days ago I actually had to trade some to get some Zimbabwe dollars. The second-hand peat moss that we use as a medium for the seedlings is a by-product from a farm that exports African violets bare-rooted around the world and they wanted Zim cash to pay wages. I suppose it is preferable for them to sell a waste product for local money than to charge real money for it then have to find the local. Anyway, it did not hurt too much as I had bought the real money for local cash a while back so it had maintained it’s value and I still had a bit left over. Curiously local dollars are in demand at the moment as they are in short supply and the price has slipped a bit. I don’t know if the government printing presses are running slow these days or they are just not keeping up with inflation (not that they ever have, they just might have slipped a bit further than usual).

At least I don’t have to pay for the satellite radio station that is playing in the background as I write this. I don’t get all the stations of course but I do get the ones that interest me; BBC and Maestro (which is classical music). There have been two announcements of interest this morning; the veto by the Russians and Chinese of the Security Council resolution on Zimbabwe and Nelson Mandela’s 90th birthday. The resolution was probably not of great influence either way but the gloating of the Zimbabwe government will be nauseating.

I have never really understood why so many people get dewy-eyed whenever Nelson Mandela is mentioned. What did the man actually DO except go around and be Nelson Mandela?  He has been disappointingly quiet on the Zimbabwe situation and I have just heard something about him being photographed with a whole lot of children. Yawn. Desmond Tutu – now there’s a man who has got guts and drive! He’s sounding a bit old these days which I guess is not surprising as he must be getting on a bit. I heard him talk way back when I was at university and the man was gifted and driven.

Essential – my internet connection which I can still pay in local currency even though I have had to deposit cash into my bank account to do so (horrors, you NEVER do that!) and dog food. The latter is still a problem.





Wasting time (and money)

3 07 2008

I have just, come from the bank where I deposited 660 billion (about USD20) of the local dollars in mostly 50 million dollar notes. It took about 3/4 hour and the biggest challenge for me was staying awake. OK, so the teller was not the fastest around but I can not even guess how much it cost the bank to count the money; certainly less than its face value. Feeling in need of a cup of coffee and some sustenance I wandered around the corner to my local WiFi cafe that actually does good coffee and muffins too and anyway, I needed to check on the email. Walking past a notice board advertising air fares to London (and other places) I noticed that a business class fare to the UK was all of 15 trillion. I will save you the bother; it’s less than USD500! The catch of course is that the airline is Air Zimbabwe and is not overly reliable but my aunt recently flew to the UK and she said business class was fine but definitely don’t fly economy! I commented on the price to the proprietor of the cafe and he said just wait until Monday when it will be the equivalent of 200 US dollars as they are always slow to update their prices. A plan is forming here…





Threats and nonsense

1 07 2008

A lot of places closed this last weekend over the “voting” period. So I am catching up now with all the e things.

Last week I was cycling to work with Jenni to do some repairs on my truck when a police Landrover came the other way. He pulled onto the other side of the road as Jenni has no traffice sense at all. Nice person I thought. Then as he went past the driver shouted: “I will arrest you tomorrow”. Not so nice. I had never seen him before and he did not use my name so I took it as just being harassment. I was not arrested the next day.

The ruling party went to extraordinary lengths in the campaign run up. I guess a lot of it was on TV but I used the plug off mine for better things some years back. They also had published a very glossy brochure on 100 reasons to vote for Bob. I won’t bother reproducing it here but it was so incredibly childish and loaded with contradictions that even the most ill informed would have picked up. The really curious thing about it was that it was entirely in English, a language that is well understood in Zim but is certainly not the mother tongue of the targeted voters!

I was at friends for supper last night. Being a bachelor it is always great to be invited out for food. The best part of the evening was seeing Bob getting rattled at the AU summit in Egypt. Not his usual cocky self at all. It was also interesting that the South Africans who are usually very pro him are calling for a “transitional government”. Would it be premature to start hoping?





Tense Times

1 07 2008

OK, I admit it, I have made a list of what to take if I have to make an emergency get-away. It does depend on me making the decision of when to go (rather than it being made for me) and assumes that I will be driving. Most friends with children are getting out of the country until things cool down a bit. Everyone is feeling rather insecure, but as I remarked to a friend it’s very difficult to know when you are being silly by staying and when you are being unnecessarily panicky. It is not as though I have nothing to lose by going; on the contrary, my business is actually surviving which by Zimbabwe standards is good though we can no longer say that we are here for the lifestyle which really was good.

There is also the issue of where to go and what you are prepared to leave behind. Obviously I want Jenni to come with me so that more or less precludes flying anywhere unless I send her on ahead. So if I want to take her I will have to drive and there is no guarantee that the roads will be safe if I wait until the last moment. On top of that there is still an air of “normality”; no burning tyres or chanting crowds, just the endless ZANU-PF “meetings” but quite why they need those now I don’t know. Apparently they are now saying that they will take people to vote farm by farm so that they can check on how they vote! I wonder what it’s like to live in a normal country where all you have to worry about is mortgage repayments and where to spend the summer holidays?

Chatting to my foreman this afternoon he was of the opinion that just about anything to stop the violence was a good idea. This of course carries the risk that the perpetrators are now of the opinion that intimidation works (which it has done) and can be resorted to at any time. He, the foreman, went to a rally on the weekend where they were instructed to write down the serial number of their voting slip and then would have to report to the local ZANU-PF Youth League (hired thugs) where it would be recorded so that they could check up on whom had voted and how.

On my list of things to take under “photo albums” is “stamp albums”. I have not collected stamps since I was a child so this actually refers mostly to my father’s collection made when he was a child. Some of the stamps are in excess of 120 years old though not, unfortunately, particularly valuable. I have just been sorting through my collection of First Day Covers, bought largely by my mother when I was at university. The earliest though is dated 2nd July 1953 in commemoration of the Royal Tour of Southern Rhodesia (as Zimbabwe was then) and stamped on the Royal Train the single stamp is valued at 6d. When we metricated in the early 1970’s (I forget when but I think it may have been 1971) 6d became 5c and must have been quite a sum because I DO remember being allowed to spend 10c a week at the tuck shop (I was a border all my school life) and LOTS of sweets could be bought for that! In 1980 there was still a 1c stamp on the First Definitive Issue which was basically the Rhodesian stamps re-issued with Zimbabwe printed on them. Thereafter First Day Covers did not have less than 9c. The Second Definitive Issue in 1985 also had a 1c stamp though I cannot think it could have been used very much. My mother died in 1992 and the last First Day cover I have is dated 1994 on which the smallest denomination is 35c. I lost interest after that even though I occasionally spot the posters for new issues in the post office. They are inevitably for issue dates that have past because who goes into a post office these days? I don’t have much interest either in themes such as “Heroes of the Zimbabwe Liberation”. I used to use stamps to send out customer’s statements but we are cash only now and anyway, by the time I would be able to get the money back it would be less than the value of the stamp. Oh, and they don’t even bother putting the value on the stamp; there is just a “Z” and they charge whatever the current rate happens to be.

On the lighter side; a customer came in this morning to collect an order but could not pay cash as we require (cheques take too long to clear and devalue some 50% before we can use them). I said that I would take any asset as payment. He said what about a pig? I did not really want a live one. Ok, he would slaughter it then. So we struck a deal; 30kg of pork hind quarter for his order!

Chatting to a friend’s wife last night she mentioned that she’d been to a supermarket for some basic shopping and had to wait 2 hours to pay. The hold up was that no-one had cash so were using their debit cards. But the machine could only deduct 100 million dollars at a time so multiple swipes per purchase were necessary. The debit card print out of her purchase for six items ended up 7.5m long!





The art of intimidation

17 06 2008

The ZANU-PF “meeting” I mentioned in the last post was real enough – it was still going on when I went home at 5 in the evening. I was not tempted to stop off and catch up but I did quiz my maid in the morning. It was all the usual fare; we will kill anyone who votes for the opposition and a weapon was brandished for good effect. Why it took five and a half hours to get the message across also speaks volumes. They are lying of course as they cannot know who votes for whom or where they will poll but the effect was there as now most people will not vote at all.

When the farm invasions were on numerous friends and acquaintances got death threats. They were probably bogus but can one afford not to take them seriously? The intimidators last week were dealing with a less sophisticated audience but the principle was the same; keep them guessing and they will err on the side of caution.  The art lies in just taking it to the line of credibility. I actually don’t think the outcome will be much influenced anyway. There is only one result that I can see – the ruling party has not come this far just to give in quietly and accept a result that they don’t want.

I see it this way:

  1. Mugabe wins outright.
  2. They rig the results to win.
  3. They lose and ignore the results.

1,681,835,527,909.52 – that’s the closing balance on my corporate account yesterday. I have never I think been so wealthy or poor at the same time. As to why they have kept the cents is beyond me; I am now rounding all my invoices UP eight digits LEFT of the decimal and busy modifying my software to cope with real money. Hey, I mean, I actually took in USD25.00 in sales last week!

I hear more and more that people are just offering to pay in real money as the hassle of getting anything with Zimbabwe dollars escalates almost as fast as the inflation. I make a point not to solicit, though if I am stung it probably won’t make a lot of difference (it is still illegal to accept foreign currency as payment). I wait for the customer to offer.





Avoiding the issue

12 06 2008

My domestic servant asked me this morning if she could go to a ZANU-PF (ruling party) “meeting” at lunchtime. I said yes as not going to these gatherings can be a bit detrimental to ones health. I mentioned this to my staff at work and immediately there was something of a panic until I pointed out that as far as I knew this was not “official”; nobody in authority had mentioned it to me. Anyway, I used it as an excuse to stay away from work and the farm over lunchtime as I had no particular intention of attending either. It could of course be an excuse for the maid to get the afternoon off but she knows that I will check up so I doubt it.

Jenni has been a bit off colour recently so I took her to the vet on Tuesday. It cost me all of 16 billion Zim dollars (about 8 of the US type) so I was not too upset. What did concern me though was that I heard another customer mention that dog food was becoming increasingly difficult to find because the manufacturer of the most popular brand could not find the sorghum to put in it. Now THAT could be a problem! Jenni is OK now and back looking for the jackals that got away on Monday evening. She has a scary turn of speed when she wants to and caught up with one very quickly. Fortunately it was a bit more agile and got away without a punch up. They frequently carry rabies. On the same run that I do with her there is a genet cat (lanky type of wild feline) but it is much quicker than her and wily to boot. It does not stop Jenni trying to catch it though and when we get near the area where she’s seen it I can see the adrenaline start to kick in.

I have just had an email from my ISP saying that they are not going to bother charging us this month as by the time they get the money it will be worth half of what we paid. Therefore they are withholding charges for the time being and trust that as loyal customers we will pay the final bill in full whenever it arrives! Wow, I am impressed!





What’s in a number?

10 06 2008

“Quadrillion boost for agric” was a headline in today’s government newspaper, The Herald. A couple of days ago I was chatting to my bank manager Colin, about the use of such vague terms. It seems that we have adopted the billion as being a thousand million because I asked him if I could write a cheque for that amount. He seemed to think that nobody would know what it meant. Well here is my best guess on a quadrillion.
Million = 1,000,000
Billion = 1,000,000,000
Trillion = 1,000,000,000,000
Quadrillion = 1,000,000,000,000,000 which is less than a million US dollars.

 





Asset management 2

10 06 2008

I should have been pleased that I’d just got a trillion dollar order and looking at the invoice I did notice that the itemized line needed some more spaces to fit in the 12 zeros.  I looked at the cheques again (no, only 500 million allowed per cheque) to see that the first one was missing the “dollars” after the “five hundred million” and was unacceptable to the bank. The second (you can only write cheques to the value of 500 million and they must be banked on separate days) was post-dated by a week and therefore unacceptable to me. I should explain that. Cheques take about 5 days to clear in this country so these were going to devalue by at least 50% before I could access them and then the bank would only allow me to draw 10 billion in cash in any one day. Cheques? Well, few outlets are accepting cheques these days – for the very reason that I was less than impressed. From the customer’s point of view we were just too good to pass up. He was getting rid of money (not a huge asset in Zimbabwe dollars) to get seedlings that were only going to appreciate (in Zimbabwe dollar terms if not real money). We were going to be getting rid of assets in the form of chemicals, fertilizer and other necessities for the growing of seedlings to get nearly useless Zimbabawe dollars. Clearly things were going to have to change. So this morning we have stopped accepting new orders for anything but cash. Preferably real money but therein lies a poisoned chalice. It’s illegal to deal in anything but Zim dollars though just about anyone will accept real money if they think the supplier will not rat on them. The customer in question is coming to see me in an hour or so to sort out his cheques. We will see what happens…

 

I was talking to a black customer on Tuesday. He farms in the north of the country and though I don’t know him very well he seemed to trust me with his less than flattering opinion of the powers that be. He was telling me that if you are vaguely successful you are seen as being a member of the Opposition (MDC). Likewise if you don’t supply food to the government “agents” or if you don’t supply transport on demand. Last week mobs had descended on his workers’ compound and burnt four houses. The next day they wanted transport to go to a rally. I didn’t ask the obvious question. He admitted that he now slept with a loaded firearm by the bed. When I asked if he wondered if there was any point to all this he gave the now predictable reply: “What else can I do?”





Inflation – now it’s real!

3 06 2008

How badly did I want this butter? Obviously badly enough to fork out the equivalent of 10 USD for a kg! I don’t use it that much but sometimes it’s really nice to enjoy a slice of fresh bread and Marmite! I cannot remember what the price was last time I bought but I do know it was much less in real terms. Actually the last butter I bought was in South Africa at the end of March so I reckoned I owed myself this treat.

Last week I had to go and get some inputs for the nursery. I suppose I could have paid in Zim dollars if I’d had them but the truth was I didn’t. I’d even had to “bring in” (I know someone who has cash here and I have money there so an arrangement was made) some of my hard saved USD just to keep the company going long enough to see through some seedlings that I’m pretty sure I can get USD for. It’s a gamble and if it doesn’t pay off I guess we will close. So, I took the figurative deep breath and went for it. On entering the fertilizer into the computer at work I noticed that the real (i.e. USD) price had gone up some 20% since I’d last bought fertilizer in December last year. I know that the onion seed that we use has gone up 25% in the last 6 months and diesel has gone up 50% since last November. We are no longer a cheap 3rd World country; we are instead like Zambia (which is expensive) but without the supporting economy. The catch of course is that most of us are earning Zimbabwe dollars which as of yesterday are worth about a billionth of a US dollar.

Yesterday I also had to make some more space on the invoices at work. Coping for billions is just not enough. I long ago removed the cents and all our prices are rounded up to the nearest million. It’s easily done as I wrote the software but I have not had much luck marketing it. Most companies prefer to just keep knocking 3 zero’s off and putting up a little notice at the checkout to that effect. The banks have had to resort to issuing new accounts once they get into the trillions (1×10 to the power 12). Oh Zimbabwe, when will it end?