A Dog Day

6 11 2008

So it’s all over. Bully for Barack Obama but will he live up to the charisma? We will have to wait for the answer on that but his election will almost certainly do nothing for the Zimbabwe situation. Why should it? We still don’t have anything that the US wants. Curiously the results of the US election were known within 6 hours of the poll closing. We still don’t know the results of ours some 6 months later!

Yesterday was oppressively hot as only November can be in Zimbabwe. There were vague promises of storms but the real rains only start around the middle of the month. I needed to make a short trip of around 50km to go and pay for the next load of used peat moss that we use in the nursery. It costs 3 dollars (all prices are in US now) a bag of 100 litres which is expensive for a waste product but we are getting used to paying high prices in Zimbabwe now; 26 dollars for an oil filter for my pickup, 275 dollars for switchgear for a borehole that would have been expensive at 75 (it consisted of a capacitor, overload relay and metal box to hold it). Anyway, I was looking forward to a trip out of town which is something that I rarely do these days.

On my way out I crossed over some traffic lights that were not working (power cut) which is one way to control the traffic; people are much more cautious when they don’t know what’s going on. About 100m down the road a white Jack Russell dog ran into the road. I had plenty of time to avoid it and as it did not look lost I hooted and it moved off the road. There was a lot of hooting behind me and looking in the rear view mirror I was horrified to see it back in the road and running in front of a large and impatient pickup. Fortunately there was plenty of space to pull over which I quickly did and opened my door and called. A very scared little dog leapt into the cab and literally burrowed under the clutch pedal. It took me a while to extricate her and she then burrowed under my left arm. It was not long before a concerned (I think he thought I was stealing the dog) gardener ran up to the cab to claim the dog back. I handed Candy back to him and carried on out of town. Somehow the rest of the day seemed a bit more tolerable.





Yet another shortage

25 10 2008

We are conditioned to shortages in Zimbabwe but this was one I could have done without.

Yesterday was pay day for my labour force and patience and understanding are not qualities they have in abundance if at all. OK, so I was a day late but I’d spent most of the day installing a new borehole pump and motor and having had to fork out US$275 for switchgear that was worth about $75 and endure most of the day in the blazing October sun my patience was in short supply too. I would have thought that as we’d agreed to pay them in hard currency and goods (food, soap and other essentials) they would have been feeling more than a bit secure and grateful. Apparently not. They wanted the money and they wanted it now – explaining that it was not going to devalue between now and Monday met with determined misunderstanding (going from multiple zeros to double digits did not help either). The sticking point was this; I did not have the exact change to pay them, so could they not wait until I could find it? Apparently not. Harsh words were exchanged and a strike threat made. I was more than happy that they go on strike – they would not get paid for work not done and we are not exactly busy. It is the first time I have seen the senior foreman angry. Eventually everyone dispersed and I came home and fumed. This morning I decided that we would just have to pay to the nearest round figure and so be it if we owed them a few dollars or they owed us. I had to use US dollars and where they were not enough, South African rand which fortunately convert at 10 to the US dollar. This is all highly illegal of course as we are not officially allowed to deal in forex and the Revenue Authority could crucify me if they felt like it. It is of little consolation that “everyone is doing it” but therein lies the reason for the shortage of small foreign currency denominations; they are all keeping them back for just this purpose! Go to a supermarket with too big a denomination and you will be refused service or asked to buy additional goods.

I asked my friend Terry the other day how he thought the forex was physically coming into the country. He assumed that it was by courier – people coming in to visit their relatives. It would never make it past the Postal system! I guess that means that we will be short for the foreseeable future as it will always be too little because we produce so little of anything that generates forex so we are going to be dependent on the couriers.





Hot off the press

15 10 2008

I have just come from the bank where after a month of weekly applications I have managed to draw 400,000 Zim dollars (about 20 US). That’s quite a lot better than the daily corporate allowance of 10,000 which they would have charged 50,000 for me to draw. The notes are new 50,000 dollar denominations. And I mean new. I can still smell the distinctive new ink smell. The quality is still the same; really poor.

Inflation was officially at 215 million percent last week which means in reality it is a lot higher – I have seen reports in the billions. Life as such still goes on though, so to see what keeps me entertained in the evenings please check out the HIFA website.





Getting to the point

6 10 2008

Because of my disability I walk visually; on a dark night when I have no verticals or horizontals to refer to I fall over very easily. It does have a few advantages. I walk with my eyes on the ground more than most so find things. I have picked up two tweezers for my Swiss army knife and the other day I found a needle in the gym. Hey, that is no small deal! I am sure needles can be bought in Zimbabwe but the haberdashery next to the bank has long since closed so I am not sure where to find one now. I had carefully stashed the needle in the top of the pin box in the foam provided but somehow it had fallen out and try as I may, I could not find it. I just had to put up with not doing up the top button on my shirt.

Finding a meat supply is quite a bit easier. There are at least three organizations/outlets advertising on the gym notice board including one that only does 30kg packs of chickens! Beef seems to be about US$6 per kg and chicken 6 depending on the cut. Also on offer are houses on the South African coast, bush tours, second had vehicles and sexy lingerie (presumably new)! Shops – who needs those. We have become a nation of traders, albeit backyard, out-of-the-kitchen traders.

I have borrowed Robert Guest’s “The Shackled Continent” which addresses why Africa is the only continent to have become poorer over the last 30 years. Yes, Zimbabwe gets a sizeable mention though that was back in the nostalgic days of mere 100% inflation, quite what he makes of the mulit-million percent inflation that we have now I would like to know. Curiously he is hopeful that Africa can solve its problems but as I am only 40 pages in I have not come to that part yet. Our salvation looks no closer than last month.





More of the same

1 10 2008

There are more notes out; a $10000 and a $20000. I saw one of the 20’s yesterday – it was an appalling attempt to copy the “real”, i.e. not bear cheques, money already in circulation. The paper was not even security paper. It doesn’t matter that much to me except that I need to get hold of some to finish paying wages. I have been to the bank every day this week but either there were about 400 people also queing or if not there was no money anyway. The curious thing is there are lots of people in town openly trading Zim dollars for real money. Apparently they have lots too, though I have chosen to buy off a friend who is a bit more discreet. I can only assume that our esteemed Governor of the Reserve Bank, Gideon Gono, is up to the same old tricks, buying real money off the street and just printing as fast as he can. At least one of my black customers yesterday agreed and called him a thief in Shona.

Fortunately almost all of my customers are now paying me in US dollars which makes life MUCH easier! No more panicking while the money devaluates (although the money in my account is pretty much out of reach and value). So today I celebrated by doing some grocery shopping in one of the many “outlets” that have popped up in people’s garages etc. selling imported foodstuffs, alcohol and amazingly in the one I went into, lawnmowers. I treated myself to a case of 24 cans of beer (and a few other things) that at US$25 was not too expensive. Tomorrow I must go to another which is a bit better priced on other groceries.





Cash Squeeze and Desperate Measures

27 09 2008

It took a lot of pleading and three hours in the bank on Thursday before I could withdraw 100000 Zim dollars )(about US$200) for wages. I had put in the applications up to 2 weeks previously but the bank was just not getting cash. I offered my senior foreman US dollars but he was surprisingly reluctant; I guess that he didn’t want the hassle of changing the money. I told him to try offeringthe US dollars instead. He eventually took them.

I see that the withdrawl limit has gone up to 20000 local dollars as from Monday. Will this mean that it will be any easier to draw money for wages? I am not really sure but I do know that the exchange rate for cash will start to run again – actually it already has just based on the information!

Walking into the cafe where I am writing this I notice a local paper had listed all the retail and wholesale outlets that have been granted licences to trade in forex. It was not a cheap exercise. 20000 US dollars for a retail licence! I believe most of the supermarkets have been granted licences. I guess a bit of competition and increased availability is a good thing but it is certainly out of the question for me; that sort of money is just way beyond my budget and at last most of my customers are paying in real money anyway. Will this mean a clamp down on those of us who cannot afford the licences but trade in real? I guess they will at least threaten a clampdown.

Even my customers who trade only on the local market are offering real money. Yesterday one of the biggest TOLD me he was going to pay in “real”. Actually, I wouldn’t have minded Zim dollars. At least it would have solved the wage issue for a while!





No deal?

23 09 2008

Like most Zimbabweans I thought the agreement signed between Mugabe and Tsvangarai included the allocation of ministries and Bob would keep control of the military and Morgan would get other key ministries such as home affairs and finance. Nope. Nothing has been allocated so it’s up to them to come to an agreement. Some chance. At the annual ZANU-PF gathering last week Bob came up for a lot of criticism for signing ANYTHING so the likelihood of giving up control of various key posts is remote. Bob is away at the UN General Assembly so nothing is going to happen for a while. In the meantime I must have my monthly squabble with my labour over wages.





Hello Sophie

16 09 2008
Hello Sophie,
Let me know what I can do – have some 100 billion dollar notes that I can scan but remember they are only worth 10 of the NEW dollars! I have plenty of the NEW 500 dollar notes that are worth 5,000,000,000,000 of the old which I can also scan if you like. The reality is that very little changes hands for Zimbabwe dollars these days (but I can find you an old invoice I printed for a customer where the value ran off the page) – most people use a hard currency like the US or the South African rand (pounds and euros are not very popular). You are only legally allowed to draw 500 dollars (about one US$) in cash from the bank and yes, it is often just one note (!!!) which is pretty much useless though there are loads of very long queues outside the banks. I’m not sure what they do with the money.
I got in 500 000 of the new dollars the week before last but with such a huge disparity between the cash for cash rate (it was 200 to one US then) and the cash for a bank transfer rate (it was 25000 to one US) nobody really wanted to change cash when they could get so much more for a transfer even if the did have to queue for it. By the time I did manage to change it the rate was 550:1 which was quite a substantial loss. What the hell, I needed to buy fertilizer and crop chemicals. The lady who was serving me asked how I was going to pay. I said; US. Then I asked if they still accepted Zimbabwe dollars. No, she said, I was just thinking of a polite way to tell you. The transfer rate is now upwards of 40000 to one US but it’s all very quite out there. Nobody trusts Bob and I think they are all just waiting to see what is going to happen next.
You might think that with cash money in such short supply it would be worth more but nobody wants it – they’d rather use real money!
Try this one: I have 500,000 Zim dollars in my corporate bank account which if I were to transfer it for cash would get me 10 US dollars. If I could get it out and change it for cash (that’s why I put in fictitious wage requisitions every week) it would be worth 1,000 US dollars!
I am reliably informed that our inflation of 10,000,000% is the highest in history. The Weimar Republic didn’t even come close.
(Resending – last attempt crashed AND I paid my ISP in fuel coupons – hey it’s an ASSET isn’t it?)
Ciao,
Andy




A small step

16 09 2008

Unlike Neil Armstrong’s words there is no giant leap in the offing. Indeed, the BBC correspondent got it right; no-one is dancing in the streets. I am referring of course to the power sharing deal signed yesterday between Robert Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangarai. Both the EU and USA have said that they will not do anything until they see concrete signs of change. And change there had better be; the WFP estimates that 5 million people (half the population) will need food aid by January next year. That is quite and achievement for a country that only 10 years ago was a net food exporter.

A lot of really odious laws have to go too. The Public Order and Security Act (POSA) that effectively allows the government to prosecute anyone for anything including criticism of the president or the police has to be one of the first. I am curious to see what is going to become of the state controlled media that will hopefully have to become self-funding and a little less fawning. The ruling party (ZANU-PF) has relied on state funding for most of its tenure – will that be withdrawn? I hope so. Will the culprits of political violence meet their true justice? I doubt it, certainly not the fat cats who really should. No, this is definitely not first prize, it is a pragmatic solution. I would really like to see Robert and his cronies in The Hague with the good company of various eastern European criminals but that is unlikely. The best I can hope for is that he suffers a massive, debilitating stroke that leaves him irrelevant and wallowing in his own excrement and bitterness. I did not watch or listen to the signing ceremony yesterday but one who did hear him droning on about colonialism and the “War of Liberation” (that ended 28 years ago) said that he looked like a distinctly spent force. There is hope yet.





Gauging the mood

12 09 2008

It was about 10 pm last night when I first heard it on BBC that a power sharing agreement had been brokered between the government and the opposition in Zimbabwe. The details are not to be released until Monday so I thought “Oh” and went to sleep. It’s headline news today and there is a fair bit of speculation but one thing is for certain; the inflation is continuing. We will just have to wait and see if Thabo Mbeki really has pulled off the coup of his presidency after years of dithering or it is yet another disappointment that we are so used to receiving.

This morning in the gym I asked Austin what he thought (he’s as big a cynic as I). He said that when heads start to roll, the first being the governor of the Reserve Bank, Gideon Gono, then things really are happening. Apparently he is the No. 1 target as far as the MDC are concerned. Having just come from my other barometer of public opinion (my bank) I can definitely say that Zimbabwe is not collectively holding it’s breath. We’ll just have to wait until Monday and the official announcement/ceremony.

The transfer rate (cash US dollars for a zim dollar transfer) on Friday last week was 6000:1. By Monday it was 16000:1 and yesterday I pushed my prices to the equivalent of 30000:1. The accountant on the farm where I stay estimated that some of the farm’s suppliers are using 80000:1. It seems that the Reserve Bank has taken note and is proposing licencing some retail and wholesale outlets to trade in hard currency. I don’t know the details but apparently they are not very attractive. The licence has to be bought in hard currency, tax paid in hard currency and the prices one is allowed to charge will be heavily regulated. They might find that there are not too many takers. Just about anywhere outside the supermarkets (which are not worth visiting anyway) are charging in US dollars as it is. Yes, it is illegal but it comes down to a simple choice; do you want the item/s? On Wednesday, desperate to get rid of some Zim dollars, I eventually changed with Chris for 550 to one US dollar. I’d got the money in the previous week at 200:1 and had been unable to change it; the Zim dollar is fast becoming useless for all transactions except paying wages (though there are still massive queues outside the banks to get it). The relief I felt despite the massive loss was almost physical – now I could do things! Yesterday I went and blew the lot on chemicals and fertilizers though it was not as much as I’d expected to get. The fertilizer had gone up 200% in real terms since I last bought some nine months ago.

I should clarify the curious currency trading arrangements. Because of the restrictions on drawing cash from the banks (500 Zim dollars a person/corporation a day = 1 US dollar) almost all foreign currency trading has gone to cash for a transfer. This has pushed the rate to the mind blowing figures mentioned above. Accordingly those with real money to sell are not interested in getting 500:1 when they could be getting about 30000:1. Cheques and transfers in Zim dollars CAN still be used to pay utility bills and a few other things so why not get some REALLY cheap money if you can! It has of course made my corporate bank account worthless though I still go through the motions of applying for wages withdrawals every week though they are taking at least a week to clear through the Reserve Bank due to the massive backlog!